How good can I theoretically become?

This weekend I ran in two 10k races, the first a serious race I managed 51m and the second a Rudolph run in 54m. I also managed a HM in 1h58m24s in October.

My starting point was probably when I was 16 and was so unfit and fat I struggled to run 100yds in our school cross country and walked round the course with my games teacher swearing at me. I then did little or no exercise for about ten years. I started running when I was 25 as part of a get fit regime, got as far as being able to run 30m, then injured myself. I then joined a gym which I stuck at for well over a year losing weight and getting fitter then I decided to run a marathon. Managed it in 5h13m over a year ago.

Basically I;ve been running ever since, getting fitter and as a result faster. My fat stomach still looks like there is a good stone to lose. However I never thought I'd ever be able to be anything but a back of the pack runner and my HM and 10k have put me somewhere towards the back of the middle pack.

My question is how fast am I likely to be able to get my times down to?

I don't expect to be breaking any world records, but is there a way of working out some sort of physical maximum you can reach?

R

To be honest I am not aware of any calculation that will say that based on X performance or training then you have the ultimate potential to get to Y...think its much more complicated than that.

You have made good progrss this year if you have gone from a 5:13 marathon to a 1:58 half and a 51 10km. How much more there is in you....well thats a tough one. Have you looked at age graded times to get an estimate of what "good" is for your age? That might be a start.

Alternatively just set yourself a target, a stretching one and go for it, if you get it then set another and so on. If you fail then reassess and try again.

Also have a look at your training plan...if aim is to get quicker then ensure you have lots of speed building runs in it...

I don't think that there is any theory to say where you could get to. It will vary from person to person. Once you lose all of the 'excess weight' then that'll be a good indication.

Just set yourself goals of faster and faster times for PBs and take it from there.