I did 2 hrs 45 mins for the Belper 30K last September. My best 20 mile road race last year was Stafford in March in a time of 2 hrs 29 mins. I might have been fitter for Stafford than Belper, but I'm never totally unfit, so I'd ony expect my Belper time to be 5 mins slower (than if I'd been fitter). Hope you get my drift Mr P and hope that's helpful. As I say, Belper's a nice event, the course is run on really nice trails, and although there are some hilly bits, they're all runnable.