Hey Neil,
Agree with Huge. Sounds like you are progressing well, not too quick which can lead to injury, and not too slow.
If you are 11minute miling, then anything over 2 miles should see you burning off fat.
Remember though that muscle weighs about 3 times as much as fat for the same volume, so you should (as you suggest) notice more in the way of body shape change before any great weight loss.
You don't say what weight you started at, (or what your height is) - don't have to either if you don't want, but remember that is another factor that will determine whether you notice weight loss or body shape change first.
My best advice is to use a range of parameters to set your goals - weight loss can be one, but more importantly are things like waist size, resting HR, how many shops you can visit with the Missus before needing to sit down for a coffee, or simply how much better you feel!
Cheers