thats one hell of a difference in average pace, your PB averages at 9.47 min mile, your target average is 8.25.
it all really depends on how long ago your PB was set and in what conditions. if they were favourable conditions and you tried your hardest and this was only last month or 6 weeks ago your chances of knocking 8 minutes off your PB are slim imo. but onthe other hand if your PB was set 4 months ago and you have put a fair bit of training in theres no reason you shouldnt hit your target but i wouldnt use that stratedgy. better to a more conservative negative split - maybe about 8.30 first half 8.20 second it obviously still averages 8.25 but doesnt rely on you turning into superman for the last half
well the BUPA race was a bit crowded, even with the stagggered start - you should be able to do a bit better in a small race - not so many people to go round, the week before and the week after the london bupa 10k my races were both over 1 minute quicker than london (one was actually 2 mins quicker) and they were of the same type - flat road. Big races arent the best indicators, unless your at the front, which i certainly am not
the RW race predictor is a fine tool but some people are better at endurance (more/better slow twitch muscles) and some better at the faster stuff. It predicts i should do a mara in 3.30 but theres not alot of hope for that.
just get a few more 10k races for a better range of data and youll be fine for knowing what is your preferd pace - im taking it that your using a garmin or similar.
happy to help
JohnnyBike wrote (see)
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