Realistic expectations for 1st marathon

Have a butchers at this thread  using actual times form runners on here, the average conversion half to full is 2.25 x half time. 

Concensus was the calculators are a "best case" predictor, not an acurate one.

good luck.  

If you were running something flat and fast I would say there'd be nothing drastically wrong with having sub-3 in mind as a potential target, but if Dartmoor Vale is tougher (I know nothing about the course) then 3:10 sounds like a sensible one.  If London holds any interest at all, the Good For Age target for you would be 3:15, so that could be a back-up target if you start struggling.

With those times, you've definitely got a sub-3 inside you, but there's a good deal of training needs to be done to convert as well as the predictors predict.  Pop over to the sub-3 thread and let us know how the training's going.

Dylan I think you should zip up your man suit and go for sub 3 with those times! I'm 45 with 42 (Aug 2011), 1:29 (Mar 2012), 3:15 (Oct 2011) - I'm doing Dart Vale too and going to give sub 3 a shot! I've done 3 ultras this year (1 more to do) so I know stamina is not an issue so will be working on speed between now and then. There are a couple of hills but it is not a hideously tough course. A big focus for your first is to get fuelling/hydration strategy right.
You live in Devon?

I'm not verly familiar with the RW plans but from what I recall they're a bit heavy on the intervals.  Since my first marathon where I used one of Hal Higdon's intermediate plans I've made up my own schedules.  HH goes the other way from RW if anything, with very straightforward schedules which you can tweak by adding tempo runs etc. so may be worth checking out.  Otherwise a lot of sub-3 threaddies swear by Pfitzinger & Douglas, whose schedules are based on overall weekly mileage targets.

Plus one for Pfitzinger & Douglas, used it on my last 3 marathons to improve each time (3:42, 3:29, 3:15). Also has a lot on fuelling etc. Like you for a half I don't really have a drink. For a full I will take about 3-4 gels but start 1 hr before having 1/2 every 30 min. You need to find which brand/flavour work for you and how many you can stomach - also have to make sure you drink the volume of water required by each. Too little and you won't absorb anything which is why I only have half at a time so I can drink less more often. Use your long runs (20+) to practise fuelling etc as I am sure you know.

Look forward to the trophy smackdown!

Dylan man.........you were spammed..but one of the spam moderators have removed the post as they try too...........which now makes Dangerous Gavins post a bit stupid.....well more stupid that it was

I'm more familiar with the first part of the book than the actual schedules.  Yes, that's a very good read and I tend to recommend the book to people who want to understand the fundamentals of marathon training even if they're not following the schedules.  Probably the clearest explanation I've seen of the different types of training required for exercising all the elements of fitness required - LT, VO2, endurance, etc. 

Unfortunately they've updated things since the edition I've got so you don't get photos of 80's dudes running in day-glo socks, tight shorts and ray-bans! 

Big fan of Pfitzinger & Douglas, although Steve's RW plan took me to a new PB by over 10mins in Paris, so I wouldn't discount them either, if your looking to go fast the reps really are key.  On targets, I subscribe to the 3 target plan, acceptable, good and perfect.

as it your first marathon the acceptable target has to be get round

Good would be sub-3:15 for the GFA place

Then Perfect would be 3:07 based on the converter stats put together on the thread mentioned by HL above.  (I was an outlier on this as my conversion is 2.05)