I have a similar problem. thankfully no injury so far, but i'm having trouble determining what "marathon pace" should be. Some of my runs have sections of X miles at marathon pace, or at half marathon pace. My last race was a half about 18 months ago, and before that my last (and first marathon) was nearly 3 years ago, in which i completely crashed, so I don't think either are particularly helpful indicators for pace, plus I think i'm probably fitter already than I was for either of those races, given i've already had a period of 4-5 months steady prep before starting my current marathon plan.
i'm using recent parkrun times as a guide to marathon pace (via mcmillan) but the greater the difference in race distance the lower the predictive accuracy.
So my question is whether, in training at"marathon pace" to use:
a) my 3 year old crash and burn marathon time
b) my 18 month old half marathon time
c) my 5k race time, extrapolated to marathon via mcmillan
d) my "goal" (for goal, read, idealised, preferred target) marathon race pace.
suggestions? my gut tells me the correct pace to use should be somewhere between C and D, given that A and B are too old to be of any meaningful use. I'm currently setting the "marathon pace" runs in my training to be slightly faster than that predicted by C, but not as fast as that needed for D, with the theory that the pace will approach D as I near race day.