VLM 2013 Target Time

Hi All.

After six years of ballot entries and club ballot places, I finally have got a place for VLM 2013.  I have run four marathons before and achieved 3:31:18 at Chester in 2011 at my last marathon.  I train currently 5 days a week and roughly 45 miles a week.  My race times for 5K - 17:23, 10K - 36:59, 10M 1:03:30.  Has anyone an idea of what my possible VLM race pace should be as I feel I can easily go under 3:30:00, but what time should I train for.

Sean

Your Marathon time doesnt fit in with your 10k time.  The RW predictor has you sub 3 - but I think thats too much of a jump unless your training jumps too.

If you do the long runs (I'm guessing you dont do too many of those or your marathon time would be faster) then I think you could aim for a Good For Age place - so sub 3.10 if you're young or sub 3.15 if you're a bit older. 

Youre 5k pb is 35+ sec faster than mine, your 10k 20sec faster, 10m about the same and I have run a 2.54. You are fast but lack endurance. As Cougie says, you need long runs. If you can get between 55 - 70mpw from 1st Jan and run 5+ 20milers, I think sub 3 could be a possible target. Run a HM in March to get a clearer guide.

Sean - have your pb's been since your 3:31 marathon?  It would seem that you need to work on your endurance since you already have the speed.

A target time will motivate you to get out the door through the winter, but thats all it should be for now. You need to decide upon and commit to the amount of running that you are prepared to build into your life and then do it. In the Spring you then set a target time based upon how the winter has gone and how fit you are. How much scarifice you are prepared to commit to and achieve will determine your target time, on the big day most folks then get the time that their training deserves. Its a simple ROI type thing.

A pace based target is useful for those who follow pace based training plans - I do. You say you are confident of 3.30 - set it at that for now if it is for training purposes, and then re-set in the spring after a half marathon.

To play devils advocate, you say 3.30 is going to be easy ("I feel I can easily go under 3:30:00"). Ask yourself now why you didn't achieve that in the previous 4 marathons. Think back to the training and how you ran on the day

ROI  comes with risk as well as reward and that certainly applies to running. Sacrificing 65-70 miles pw of time won't guarantee a result. Fine if you can handle that extra mileage, but if it results in general fatigue, injury and overtraining, you may end up on the curbside. You really need to think about what you can handle given your recovery from the sessions and what else you have on in your liife.

You are running 45 miles pw, with a 5k and 10k well inside my times. On my limited experience of running since January, I would expect to go sub 3 on 45 miles pw on a flat/undulating course. Why? - I'm a slow runner, but have plenty of endurance. Based on 60+ miles, I probably won't survive the winter as I don't recover so well. Everyones different.

pace based plans ? I didnt want to get into paces/target times as its more about the training and how much you are prepared to commit. But with the leg speed you have you should be able to run low 2:50s (so there's no point aiming 3:30).....if you have the endurance to back up the leg speed.

45 mpw isnt enough for a marathon, you probably lack endurance and dont do enough long runs. If you were to run something like 5 or 6 days/week and include a long run of 18 to 21M, a midweek 13 or 14 and a few 6 to 8ish mile runs from Christmas then you will be looking sub3 IMO. You simply lack endurance...........or cant pace yourself properly on race day.

45 mpw isn't enough for a marathon? Depends on the individual, and what they want to achieve.  Didn't do me any harm and achieved decent results. The OP has a speed bias, and no endurance and/or pacing as you say TR . 

I agree its a lot about how much you want to commit, but so many plans are pace based, and some people need the affirmation that they are on schedule and target - that is how I operate. If I am using an 'off the shelf' plan then I will set a target, and adjust periodically. Part of the skill is nowing when to drop sessions, back off the pace etc - this bit is all new to me!

For me, week 0 hadn't run for 25 years, week 21 ran 3:02. Didn't faff about with much speed work. Just focused on endurance - weekend long runs with sections at your marathon pace, and easy runs and the odd tempo run midweek. Averaged 40-45mpw.

Went on to do approx 60mpw for 16 weeks, more in line with P&D. It was a lot of extra running for small gains in my marathon time. I got more satisfaction from the 45mpw campaign as I was fresher,  and less prone to injury, more than I did with the sub 3 campaign. Others need the mileage - Nell McAndrew's sub3 being a good example - she  really stepped up the mileage last year.

Sean - make sure that you let us know what you did and how it turned out.

With those times and 45 miles per week you should easily be able to go under 3 hours.    If you upped your mileage a little bit you could probably do near 2.50.

Looking at your Power pf 10 rating Sean, you have got some good speed over the shorter distances, but moving up the distances you times certainly drop off. You HM time fits in with this.

Maybe join one of the sub 3.30 / sub 3/15 / sub 3hr threads on this website to get some ideas on how to buld up your endurance. God luck.

You'll see a common theme developing here Sean!

Off a 5K of 17:25 and 10K of 36:19 this year (ie spookily similar to yours) marathon times were:
VLM 2:57:04
Chester 2:55:36

Theres a direct comparison between VLM and Chester there for you as well.

PRF - I suspect that you could run quicker over 26.2 too. Given those short distance times and the amount you run and race. I'm not sure exactly what you do in mara build up but with either a bit more specific marathon work or aiming a bit less safe on race day you could be ~2:50.

TR - thats the plan