VLM 2013 Weather Forecast

Updated weather forecasts for the London Marathon

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12/04/2013 at 11:18

Hi everyone,

John Holmes, the senior forecaster at Netweather and who worked at the Met Office for many years has kindly sent a forecast. I will keep this updated as we approach the race.

Weather Forecast for London Marathon Updated 11.00 a.m. 12.04.13

 

The overall idea shown for some days on the 500mb upper air charts has been for an upper ridge fairly close to the south of the UK. Its shape is open to some doubt, most of the time it shows as a ridge type on others (the minority) as a flattish westerly pattern with higher contours close by the south.
Putting this in terms of the surface pattern is never easy but I suggest that the idea shown this morning of a surface high over the southern half of the UK, probably more as a flattish sort of ridge on Sunday than the centre shown for Saturday.
The wind flow is not clear and could be a light to moderate flow from an easterly or a westerly point. The position of the ridge being the key. My own feeling is that the position will give a westerly component, actual speed is not possible to give this far out, not calm anyway!
This implies a dry day, perhaps a misty start with some low cloud at first but any of this clearing as the sun comes out with sunny spells by lunchtime.
Lows of somewhere between 3 and 6C and afternoon values up to 10-12C. So not all that warm which should help?

12/04/2013 at 11:20

No idea what I'm doing, but that sounds perfect. 

 

12/04/2013 at 11:31

Cheers HR. Cool and dry sounds good. Fingers crossed for lighter rather than moderate wind (and preferably from the East).

12/04/2013 at 11:38

Hmmm... over the past 24 hrs I've heard everything from 10 to 22 degrees and easterly or westerly winds.  So we still appear to be in finger-in-air, tabloid horoscope territory.

Cheers HR, keep 'em coming! 

cougie    pirate
12/04/2013 at 11:39
I'm not even bothering to read forcasts until we're into the last couple of days. They cant predict 10 days away. 10 hours is pushing it !
12/04/2013 at 11:39

Phil, does that mean we can just pick our favourite? I will take 10 degrees with a slight breeze. 

12/04/2013 at 11:41
literatin wrote (see)

Phil, does that mean we can just pick our favourite? I will take 10 degrees with a slight breeze. 

Don't ask me, I'm a Gemini!

12/04/2013 at 12:14

I will be sitting on the sofa with a bacon sarnie - wearing sunglasses or a woolly hat as the weather dictates  

Edited: 12/04/2013 at 12:15
12/04/2013 at 12:26

To be fair he's very experienced and isn't just using the model outputs, but applying them to a lot of knowledge. He got 2011 pretty spot on IIRC.

However, he'd acknowledge that this far out is still open to lots of change. I'll keep posting updates.

By the way, to interpret what he's put above, that would be just about perfect especially if a light easterly came off. London's predominantly east to west and those final miles up the Embankment would be doubly good with a bit wind in the back.

Edited: 12/04/2013 at 12:28
12/04/2013 at 12:30

Personally I'm not going to worry about it.  Can't change it and plan to run regardless

12/04/2013 at 13:13
With all the different forecasts I think I will need a bigger suitcase.
12/04/2013 at 13:54

I think I might just bring all my running kit down to London and decide on the day what to wear!!

12/04/2013 at 14:14
Hope it's snowing and -5 degrees, thats what I've been training in the last 4 months!!!
12/04/2013 at 14:17

Frozen gels would last longer.  You could suck on them like ice lollies.

12/04/2013 at 14:47

I gave up trying to read that report after the first paragraph

Thanks HR, I'll look forward to the updates, as long as its not chucking it down or scorching (above 10 degrees) I'll be fine

12/04/2013 at 14:54

You just can't predict the day, but I'll make sure I check several different forecasts several times a day, and this thread as well now, after all I'm British and need to talk about/worry about the weather

12degC,  light easterly with a bit of drizzle at about the time I go through 20 miles then sun when I get to Horseguards Parade would be nice though

12/04/2013 at 17:10

Is that report available in English?

12/04/2013 at 18:17

Hot, dry and no wind or rain will suit me just fine

12/04/2013 at 21:10
I'll take anything that's better than the shit weather we have had over winter
14/04/2013 at 19:48
Still gonna pack a bin bag!
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