VLM Ballot

does age matter?

16 messages
29/04/2013 at 15:00

Hi all,

I'm 18 and have ran the VLM this year after surpisingly gaining a place through the ballot first time. I have entered the ballot again for next year, by which time I will be 19.

Whilst running the marathon last week it came to my attention that there were very, very few young runners aged 18-22.

From my limted personal experience it seems as if Marathon running is not really a 'young mans game'.....

Therefore, is it possible that people in my age bracket have a greater chance of gaining a place considering less people my age will be entering?

or is it COMPLETELY random?

29/04/2013 at 15:02

I heard that it wasn't random... they tack finishing time into account as well to get a spread of runners..

A friend got in the ballot first time saying her target time was 7hrs she did it in sub 4! Of course it could of been just luck!

seren nos    pirate
29/04/2013 at 15:03

I think you have a better chance as I think they want to encourage youngsters into running.....

entered my 17 yr old son for next year and have already bet that he will get in whilst me and my hubby have been rejected every year for years and only got in thye once from the old rule which used to mean after 5 rejections they gave you a place for the 6th year......

 will be interesting to see next october if we are right

29/04/2013 at 15:57

Agree with Fenn

I heard that all the time brackets are split out and then it is random from there on in.

The organisors want a steady stream through the finish line after the Elites have gone. If it was completley random you could have say 20 people finishing between 3 and 3.30 and 500 between 3.30 vand 4

cougie    pirate
29/04/2013 at 16:22
I think it might be random. When I was entering the ballot my finishing time was wildly off from my actual time. A random selection would probably give you the same distribution as a carefully selected one.
29/04/2013 at 19:02

seren nos 

 

yep if I get a place in october our suspicions may be justified!

01/05/2013 at 16:00

Have entered the ballot for several years and am a sub 3.30 runner so not sure about the time thing. The biggest con is the good for age I would have to run sub 3.05 a which is tough going whereas a woman only has to run 3.45 which due half decent club runner could do. The gfa should be scrapped to make extra places for us mortals.

 

01/05/2013 at 16:06

Why not get rid of the Elites and championship places too.

Then they won't have to try and pretend that it is a running race. 

01/05/2013 at 16:16

You could hold it somewhere else as well......  Doncaster perhaps 

01/05/2013 at 16:21

Yes, have the immortal elites run past, then have some marching bands and some gaudily-decorated floats to amuse the crowd until the mortals arrive.

01/05/2013 at 16:23

Nah.. The mortals can't be bothered with London 

01/05/2013 at 16:27

if the ballot selection was random you would expect to see a normal distribution curve (a "bell shaped curve") of finishing times. I'm not sure what the finish time curve looks like in reality, but other than a peak around the 4 hour mark, it seems reasonably even throughout, which would suggest a grouped selection based on est finish time.

I've not analysed the results though, so i'm speculating.

01/05/2013 at 16:30
AgentGinger wrote (see)

if the ballot selection was random you would expect to see a normal distribution curve (a "bell shaped curve") of finishing times. I'm not sure what the finish time curve looks like in reality, but other than a peak around the 4 hour mark, it seems reasonably even throughout, which would suggest a grouped selection based on est finish time.

I've not analysed the results though, so i'm speculating.


Im speculating that you are probably pretty close to how it works

01/05/2013 at 16:49

Why not get rid of the Elites and championship places too.

Then they won't have to try and pretend that it is a running race. 

01/05/2013 at 16:49
Edited: 01/05/2013 at 16:51
01/05/2013 at 19:38

I was chatting to a guy on the train whilst travelling up to marathon, who knew a guy who always put his finishing time as 7 hours, and got in just about every time.

I entered the ballot again and thought I would give that a shot


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