Will I do Sub 3 Hour Plus Advice Welcome

Hi all,

I am running my first marathon in Blackpool , 7th April. I am going for sub 3 hour mark, I train between 35-50 miles per week. One Track session, one long run, one hills/fartlek then recovery runs (6 days per week). My times posted so far are - 1hr20 for Half Marathon. Did a training run 18 miler in 1hr59, track 5km in 17:26 but prob on road 17:45 standard. All predictions suggest I'll do around 2:50ish but I am wary I will prob hit 'the wall'!!

Feedback welcome

Thanks

Chris

Without knowing your precise training/natural ability I'd guess that sub 3 should be achievable, but 2:50 optimistic for the mileage you're putting in.

Saying that I don't think there's many people that can clock a 1:20 half on less than 50 a week so you my prove me wrong.

Try going through half on 1:27 and you can either have an awesome second half and hit 2:50 or a bad one and still go sub 3.

You seem to have the speed but you haven`t given much detail of how may long (20+) mile runs you have been doing.

Yes, agree with the other - need more info on the long stuff. 1st Marathon, you are entering the unknown.

I'm low mileage, 1.20.xx HM and think in terms of Sub3 rather than sub2:50.  Would like to do sub 3 a bit more comfortably than previously. Could I run 6:29 pace for 26 miles? I may gamble but be greedy and you could get it in the face in the last 6 miles. How many 20 milers have you rattled off? If you have done the long work, then I would be going for sub3.

Wow quick responses, thanks guys.

I have done 2 x 20 milers, the first one I did on week 7, I ran 18 miles at a good pace - 2:08 then jogged the last 2 miles slowly at 8 min/mile pace = 2:24.  Week 8 - 10m, week 9 - my 1:20:20 half marathon,  week 10 - 20 miles EASY in 2:30 felt very comfortable.  I am on week 11 of 13...(only 13 week designated plan but was training before that at around 20-25 miles per week then anyway).  Did 18 miles on week 3 in 1:59:30...On my last 20 miler (week 10) I felt tired starting off but was running at comortable pace, started aching around my IT band area around mile 17...

Feedback appreciated, thanks...

I think I would aim for around 2:56 - I don't think I was running about 60 a week when I first ran sub 3 - long time ago though I think my half pb then was only 81 minutes when I did that - by the time I ran under 2:50 I was doing closer to 75-80 miles a week and the half pb was around 78 minutes. 

Good luck though unless you give it a bash you will never know.

Update - I did 2:56 (went through half in 1:27) so pretty accurate guess Grendel3!! Very happy and looks like you can do it on ''low mileage''...! Thanks for your comments...

Well done, good effort!