BR – I think your (and Pantman’s) training ideas are pretty close to mine. A few thoughts for you:
I agree that your morning run should be at least 30 mins, but very slow. They should be to aid recovery from the night before and set yourself up for the evening session. Currently my morning jogs are at only 50% WHR, I see no reason to increase the effort as I get fitter.
I agree with Pantman regarding the long runs. Your goal is to RACE a marathon, which means you should be capable of running the distance (slowly) at any time. I know this is not widely agreed upon, but something I strongly believe in.
If you are running for 1½ to 2½ hours per day, you’ll soon know if you are going anaerobic! There are various tests you can do to find the ‘right’ pace, but if you can continue training day after day without deteriorating then you are probably OK.
One thing I’ve noticed missing from your training plan is races. I can’t imagine you going months at a time without them! I think running the odd race (but not easing up the training) will not do too much harm. It is OK for the elite to target just one or two races a year, but us mere mortals need the odd race here and there to keep our motivation up.
As I have said before, your peak is probably (or should be) a few years away yet. So why put all your eggs in one basket this year to run a time that you’ll be able to beat easily in a couple of years time?