I'd have thought it's better to train at your current fitness, and then re evaluate as your fitness improves. Picking a 4:15 shedule doesn't mean you'll run a 4:15 marathon, and using a 4:30 one doesn't mean you'll not achieve faster on the day. From what I know of the RW schedules the main difference if the pace rather than the volume so you could adjust the pace as you go along.....or pick a shedule that doesn't have a time attached to it (such as Hal Higdon ones, but think there are many others out there) so you don't feel you are working, or not working, towards a speciifc time.
Oh and Ultra Sparkly Bridget (this year's 4:15 super six) has started a thread for 4:15 marathon in the spring marathon secion, could be worth popping along to that.
Good luck with it though whatever you decide.......I'd like to aim for 4:15 next time I do a marathon. (Current pb 4:41) My plan is to try and get faster over shorted distances for a bit before going for it
Edited: 15/05/2011 at 15:30