Do you think my pace is ok for Sub 4hr?

Hi there,

I have recently joined a running club and I now run regularly throughout the week. I am running the Malta Marathon in February and am wondering if my current pace will  be quick enough to run in under 4 hrs.

I have looked back at my average paces for my previous training runs and normally I average between 8'10 and 8'40 a mile. If I am in good shape I can sometimes push for 7'58. Do you think that I should try to up my pace on my training so that I have a chance at sub 4hr? I'm not going to push too hard as the marathon is only about 6 weeks away but I would like to give it my best shot.

I ran the London Marathon in 2011 and I ran 4hr 48 but I was plagued with injuries that year. Anything better than this would be excellent but breaking 4hr would be even better for me.

Any help or comments would be appreciated.

Thanks

Andy

Have you been doing all your runs at the same sort of pace?

Your long training runs should be well below your intended race pace, and work on your speed done in shorter sessions.  

It's probably a but late to make much difference at this stage, but something to think about for the next one.

My long runs on a sunday are normally about 9 minute miles which I class as slow. I am always trying to get around the 8 min mark for my speed sessions.

I agree with you that it is a little late, I was having a read of my running book and thought it would be worth getting another opinion on it.

Sub 4 is about 9 minute miles, so you must be "racing" those long runs ?

Long runs would be about 10.30 mins per mile ? And speedwork much quicker. 

If you are running all the long runs at race pace - it takes it out of you for the rest of your traing. Do you have a recent half time ? Thats always a decent guide. 

The more I read of the hadd techniques, the more confidence I have that you need to be slowing down, not speeding up.

A lot depends on how long your runs have been.  If you've done 20 miles at 9 minutes... then it shows ability.  If it's 10 miles, then it's unproven.

I'd suggest you can still get to 4 hours, if you've been getting plenty of miles in - even if you have been going too fast.  I think 4 or 5 weeks with a lot of slow running.. at the pace cougie suggests... could save the day. You haven't got time to waste a single run at a pace faster than 9.5 minutes..  and probably better having every mile slower than 10.  Good luck.

its all about getting the long runs in without tiring yourself for the next training sessions........too fast and you are likely to be too tired and prone to injury...once you get the miles under your belt comfortable ... then think about puting some of the long run miles at the 9 min mile pace.........

nearer the time you can assess your race pace on the way your long runs have been going

Khanivore, yes. Those are almost identical to my paces before my last marathon which I finished in 3:55.04

That 5 mile pace would've been a tempo sandwiched between a couple of miles either side.

Andrew H - I expect you've got a couple of 20-milers lined up before your marathon.  Try this with your next one: first 17 miles at 9:50 miling, last 3 at 9:05.  If you can do that fairly comfortably I'd say you'd be up for 3:59. Don't do all your sessions, especially the long ones, at race pace.

Lardarse - it was meant to be the way you described. However due to my inability to read instructions properly I actually just ran the whole 5 miles at the same pace.  It is really encouraging to see that you went sub 4 with similar paces to me!

Seren and T-Rex - great, thanks. I will do exactly that. I won't do it right away as I failed at reaching 20 miles the first time I tried it (I believe it was due to lack of taking any food during the run) but once I have done a couple of 20 mile runs I will try what you describe.

Andrew H/Khanivore = same person? - try a 20 next, a 22 four weeks before your race and a final 18-20 two weeks before.  You probably won't get to 20 if you're trying to go 'flat out', so take it easy and do your hardest work at the end of the run. Experiment with energy drinks and gels on your next long runs.

I think realistically you're going to be in the 4:20-4:30 bracket - 48 minutes is a massive improvement, but it has been been known.  Let us know how you get on.

well done andrew with that result.........I bet you had a nervous last couple of miles.....so pleased you hit your target