Lots of questions!
Yes, you will experience the odd "bad" run. The key for improvement is to identify the differences between good & bad runs. For example, from what you've said the change in time wouldn't affect me, and I wouldn't expect to expend too much energy walking the dog - but I know I will be significantly slower for a given level of effort if I've had a drink the night before. However everyone's different, and the change in time/dog walk may have had an influence on you (although the most likely culprit is the beer!). Personally I just accept that if I'm going to be drinking, then the next day's run won't be as easy.
For the average runner an even pace is the best target (for top-level runners, a negative split is often quoted as the ideal) . You are making the common beginner's mistake of running too fast at the start. Just slow down and take it easy , try running at a pace that you could maintain conversation if you were running with someone. It does sound counter-intuitive, but by running at a pace that feels comfortably hard you are getting the least benefit from your running. By running slower you will give your body a chance to adapt & build your leg muscles for your running, whereas by running too fast your body is too busy repairing the damage to have anything leftover to build upon your existing muscle.