McMillan Running Calculator

8 messages
21/03/2012 at 09:53

McMillan Running Calculator 

Has anyone noticed a change in relationship between race time predictions over different distances, some time over the past year or so??  I'm pretty sure that for a given time/distance, McMillan is now predicting faster times for shorter distances and slower times for longer ones. e.g. call me stato but I'm pretty sure that plugging in my 10k pb of 33:25 predicted 16:09 for 5k and 2:34x for the marathon last time I checked, but now the figures are 16:05 and 2:36:49.

McMillan was always my favourite race time predictor because it seemed to work fairly well for me over these distances, but I can't help thinking I'll start to struggle with maintaining the relationship going down the distances now.  Also, as far as I recall the RW predictor seems to work in the opposite direction, which would make the respective predictions even more diverse now.

I could e-mail the site and find out I suppose, but anyone know anything about this?  Has he had too many complaints from people missing their marathon "targets"? 

21/03/2012 at 10:39

Stato!

It's still reporting the same times as when I checked it (half to full) in October, so any potential change predates that. I wrote down both the half time I entered and the marathon time it produced.

I fully expect to still miss that target!

21/03/2012 at 10:43

eee up Stato.

Have you tried using WAVA to predict your times (i.e. use you 10K WAVA % to predict your marathon time). Now that is harsh when it comes to converting to marathon times (at least at my age).

21/03/2012 at 10:44

Phil, I don't know when any change occurred, but even 2 years ago I didn't match the 5k& 10k time my half suggested.

And this is despite being told and feeling myself that I'm shorter distance biased.

yet I'm coming out 10mile and HM as my best 2 pound per pound times!

21/03/2012 at 11:30
Stevie - I suspect you are just better at longer distances than you think (or worse at shorter ones depending on how you want to look at it ). For me my 5k time is usually a fair bit quicker than my other distances according to Macmillan.
21/03/2012 at 13:52

Wow - I'm going to use this thread as proof that even though my missus often calls me an obsessed running geek, that I'm still relatively sane compared to many!....

<* YP scurries off to check whether his predicted times in McMillan calculator have changed *>

22/03/2012 at 16:32
Not all that recently ... I don't think... because a while ago I put my best HM time in and the predicted M time was only 7 secs off my real PB - tried it again and the same thing is true today. Mind you I would hate to have to try to hit the predicted short distance times!
24/03/2012 at 04:21
Phil. Alway found site pretty accurate. Haven't used it recently though. Perhaps you could e-mail and ask if they have changed their estimates...

We'd love you to add a comment! Please login or take half a minute to register as a free member
8 messages
Previously bookmarked threads are now visible in "Followed Threads". You can also manage notifications on these threads from the "Forum Settings" section of your profile settings page to prevent being sent an email when a reply is made.
Forum Jump  

RW Forums