There's no reason why, at 38, if you put in the training, that you couldn't run a 4:30 marathon.
Why do you want to do one run a week on the treadmill? Can you not think of a way to do all your runs on the road. Although I doubt that it would really have an adverse effect on your training or running performance.
If you have weeks in hand, build on a stronger base. This will help to make you injury resistant. The easiest way to get injured is by doing too much too soon. Also by extending the period of your marathon training you may just feel fedup with the whole thing come race day.
I would get in some easy miles, whatever your current weekly mileage is I would do that, maybe with some fun off road routes or hills or something that you enjoy.
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