predict my 10k

20 messages
10/07/2012 at 14:56

I've done a 3x1600m workout with 200m (90sec) recovery in 5:36,5:33,5:40 and was wondering what sort of time i would run for the 10k?

Bit of background: current PB 35:12 ran in April on no more than 30mpw, currently on a week three of my ten week plan and have done 31 and 33mpw first two weeks, aiming for 35 this week.

Cheers

10/07/2012 at 15:02

Bickey, stop messing about with miniscule mileage and you'll probably end up as a contender

10/07/2012 at 15:53

Well it's not much to go on, and nothing to strongly suggest that you're going to knock anything off your pb, especially if it's not backed up by many miles.

OK, I'll be optimistic.  35:10. 

10/07/2012 at 16:54

37:23

Pethead    pirate
10/07/2012 at 22:20

I do a lot more miles than you on average and my PB is currently slower (watch this space, mind) so unless you've got some extra-special training plan up your sleeve I don't really predict a big improvement.

11/07/2012 at 09:37

Can I highjack this thread???

I'm 39, been running a couple of years and on 50-55mpw and looking to PB on 29th July on a flat course in South Wales (Magor Marsh). Previous 10k is 38:05 in Apr 2012. Did a 10k  tempo run last week on the flat in 38:12. With these figures what's a realistic time?

1 - 6:15 - 81%mhr

2 - 6:16 - 87%mhr

3 - 6:10 - 88%mhr

4 - 6:12 - 90%mhr

5 - 6:05 - 90%mhr

6 - 6:01 - 93%mhr

7 - 5:33 (0.21m) - 94%mhr

11/07/2012 at 18:38

Cop Out, i'm sure heart rates have all manner of other factors, but had a look around for a quick easy set of ranges..

http://www.runnersworld.co.uk/general/heart-rate-training---the-basics/176.html

According to that article, you haven't run a tempo at all, you've pretty much run a 10k race effort in training!  The way those heart rates are going, it looks a very hard session indeed...one more half mile and you might have blown

If your heart rates had shown in the 85% or under the whole way, i'd suggest you;d be able to take a min or so off your time.

As they're 90% in the "10k race" heart rate....i'd take a gamle that the improvement will still be there, due to race day magic etc...but a bit less.

lets go 37:50

Edited: 11/07/2012 at 18:39
11/07/2012 at 21:00

Cheers Stevie but surely 85% mhr is MP which for me would be around 6:52m/m?

When I did the 38:05 my stats were as below so there's definately more in the tank.

1 - 6:06 - 84%mhr

2 - 6:09 - 91%mhr

3 - 6:00 - 93%mhr

4 - 6:14 - 94%mhr ( hill)

5 - 6:00 - 94%mhr

6 - 5:59 - 96%mhr

7 - 5:42 - 96%mhr

11/07/2012 at 21:19

85% is too high for MP. That's more the zone for 10mile race pace. 90% is then your 10k intensity.

Ignoring the first mile on your race while you got going, mile 2 reflects that, 6.09 for 91% (10k race pace being 6.07). After that ramping the pace towards 5k pace gives 93 and 94%

With your "Tempo" run, again ignoring mile 1 while you built up, mile 2 comes out close to your tempo pace of 6.17 (6.16 for 87%).

Then for your 10k intensity of 88-90% you did 3 miles between 6.05-6.12 (should be 6.07 for your 10k pace).

Then 1mile at 5k pace 6.01, pushing at 93%

some thoughts

  • From your tempo session alone, your 10k pace due to 90% intensity readings would be between 6.05 and 6.12
  • Your last race pace was 6.07, but this looks to have been slowed a bit by that hill (slowest mile 6.14).
  • 4 of the 6 miles came out quicker than the average of 6.07
  • You have the ability to tap into some high readings for big finishes, circa 96%

Due to the last of these points, and that race having the hill, i reckon that affected you by at least 2 seconds per mile, so perhaps 38:05 reduced to a 37:53.

I would say that 6.05 should be your minimum pace aim for your flat 10k..and if you pace it correctly, and can still manage a 96% intensity finish could be aiming for a sub 37:45 or so.

That's enough waffling from me...smash the race, and let's see how this all pans out

Edited: 11/07/2012 at 22:02
12/07/2012 at 09:39

Thank you for taking the time to explain this. I probably would have gone out too quick in my forthcoming race and blown out. Leaving something for a faster finish would be great although just to get under 38 will be a big step for me.

I'll let you know how it goes.....

 

 

12/07/2012 at 10:54

I think you're still in that glorious period where the pbs come quick and often.

It's when you get to my amount of years in that you start having to work very hard for buttons, as i think you pointed out that time

12/07/2012 at 12:00

You're never going to let me forget that one are you!

16/07/2012 at 17:01

Completely against your advice, I know,  but I went out and did another 'tempo' run a couple of days ago. This was with a view to try and maintain a more even pace and I produced a time of 37:39. In effect I'm doing a mile shuttle run on road so I may be losing the odd second on the turn and the mild undulation. There still feels like there's more in there although the last mile knacked a bit. I'll also be wearing racing flats on the race day. Your thoughts would be welcome again...

1 - 6:06 - 83%mhr

2 - 6:06 - 87%mhr

3 - 6:03 - 89%mhr

4 - 6:06 - 90%mhr

5 - 6:03 - 91%mhr

6 - 6:03 - 93%mhr

7 - 5:50 - 94%mhr

 

Edited: 16/07/2012 at 17:03
16/07/2012 at 20:29

Cop Out, i think your next race should be exciting.

Noone would do a session of 6.2miles at their 10k pace outside of a race, so unless something isn't quite as it seems with those times/route etc...you must be able to take a minimum of 30secs off that. I think you can afford to start at 6min miling at least, and maybe if that feels comfy, ramp that up as you go on.

I do my 6miles at MP at 6.15pace....and i've done a 35:20 10k...just as a bit of a guide....there's no way i could do a 6mile stretch at 5.40 pace! However, I step off that 6m MP session worked out rather than anywhere near wrecked....only you can tell your exertion level after....it might be race pace...it might be"Plenty more"

 

roll on next race

Edited: 16/07/2012 at 20:30
16/07/2012 at 21:06

I thought 6 m/m might be an option too but always concerned about blowing out. I hear your concerns regarding the route as we so often hear utter rubbish in this site but please take a look to assure yourself I'm not a maniac!

http://connect.garmin.com/activity/198964085

I'm going to avoid such sessions now until after the race.

 

 

16/07/2012 at 21:29

As you have the power to arrest me, i'm not going to call you a nutter

But no, i think if you don't beat that time on a race, something has gone massively wrong...but yes keep it laid back before the race...maybe some race pace reps instead of tempo in the week before.

just 1k at 10k pace  off 90secs x3  something light.

31/07/2012 at 19:25
Stevie G . wrote (see)

I would say that 6.05 should be your minimum pace aim for your flat 10k..and if you pace it correctly, and can still manage a 96% intensity finish could be aiming for a sub 37:45 or so.

 

Not a bad prediction eh Cop Out?

01/08/2012 at 11:46

Oh God, they'll be no end to him now!

Yes, spot on. BUT....

I was once again rolled over by my Garmin. My splits were

6:02, 6:02, 6:04, 5:58, 5:57, 5:58, 5:48 (but for 6.29 miles.) Now I know it was a certified course and its the inaccuracies of the device but it's still a hard pill to swallow as I thought I was sailing into a low 37's. I spoke to a couple of guys already at the finish line and it appears a common theme.

01/08/2012 at 15:27

You now join the very rare club of people who claim a faster time in training than a race...you best rectify that quickly

You rarely get a race measured spot on. It's quite hard to take the exact racing line at times.It's the under distance races you've got to watch as that invariably means it is indeed under distance and doesn't count..much more annoying!

So take the pb, get back on it and go again.

Now I've retired from racing, I've instead taken to training newbies and erm...predicting other's times

01/08/2012 at 17:15

 

Now I've retired from racing, I've instead taken to training newbies and erm...predicting other's times

I'm not sure if that's for real? If you have hung up the racing flats then at the very least you can say you achieved a good standard and can impart this knowledge to those aiming for similar heights. I'm always digging for answers on something or another.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Edited: 02/08/2012 at 15:46

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