Predicted Times - Training

Xerxes

13/08/2002 at 14:31

I have tried a number of these time predictors, where one types in a particular distance and time (or several of these) and it dutifully outputs predicted times for other distances.
My best 1/2 Marathon time of 1:31:30 seems to indicate (from several predictors) that I should be able to do 3:10 for the Marathon (should always be typed with a capital M out of respect), yet I have done two: first (1994) was 3:36 (ish), last (1996) was 3:29:30. How accurate are predictors?

13/08/2002 at 14:53

Personally I think they're aimed at Marathon runners who want to work out what their shorter distance times are. If I put in my 10K time in and predict a half time I should be about 15 minutes faster. They don't seem to take into consideration that some of us get a lot slower the further we run. So in answer to your question, I find them worthless because I don't usually run for more than an hour

mcc

13/08/2002 at 15:24

I find the opposite - my best 5k time is 19 mins and my best 10k 40 mins and I really struggled for both of these. According to these times, I should be struggling to complete a sub 1:30 half marathon, yet my worst half marathon time is 1:29:10 and my PB is 1:24:24. I find longer the pace for longer distances much more comfortable.

13/08/2002 at 15:48

I wish I could run at that pace Michael. 15km/h is beyond me for anything greater than a 5k. I think we both prove the point though that predictors can't work for everybody. You run a very fast and linear pace regardless of distance whereas mine tails off badly the further I run.

Flying Finn

13/08/2002 at 16:14

We all seem to agree that predictors don't work for everyone; they certainly don't work for me. I still haven't been able to run 10K under 38 minutes, but I did 2.57 in London Marathon. My average time per mile is roughly the same for 10K and 1/2 marathon! Can anyone explain this? Could it be that I'm more relaxed in longer distances.

13/08/2002 at 16:31

I envy you all running at these paces. I wondered if you tried doing short distance of a couple of kilometers as fast as you can you would in time improve on your 10K times. I bet Michael and Mikko train for longer distances, Tim for halfs and 10k for myself. I would imagine different training patterns should be used dependant on distance

mcc

13/08/2002 at 16:37

Yup, I definately train for longer distances, but do try and include some interval training every week (tonight as it happens), when I try to do three to four miles at about 6 minute mile pace with 120 second recoveries. But I much prefer the Thursday tempo run!

Guy

13/08/2002 at 16:38

It seems to me that they get increasingly unreliable the further apart your "actual" and "virtual" distances. Based on my 5k time I ought to be capable of a 3:04 marathon; based on my half marathon time I ought to be capable of 3:14 marathon; in fact my best marathon (yet) is 3:38. I think the difficulty with the predictors is: (i) that they assume the same intensity of training for all distances, when it is actually much easier to train for a 5k; and (ii) they ignore the very different mental and physical demands which a marathon imposes. (That said, I do regard my marathon time as fairly "soft", and am determined to get it down to where it ought to be.)

13/08/2002 at 16:51

Guy, I agree totally with everything you said apart from your marathon time being soft.

I think I'll back out of this conversation as you're all in a different league.

Happy running

Hilly

13/08/2002 at 18:51

I suppose that time predictors assume that we will train solely for the distance predicted to achieve our potential at that distance.

How often do any of us train solely to do one particular distance, apart from maybe the marathon and even then is the training done correctly.

Maybe to achieve all our predicted times and full potential we all need coaches and physio's and maybe a nutritionist and above all the time to do the training with lots of rest!

Wouldn't it be great! Happy running:)

Dustin

19/08/2002 at 08:13

Race predictors are purely guides and should be treated as such.However they do offer insight into what you could be capable of.
Using onrunning.com my 10k time acurately predicts (within 2 minutes) my 10mile and halfM times however it indicates my marathon
time should be 10-15 minutes quicker.
This to me seems logical given most semi serious runners can perform adequately between 5k and halfM as the mileage/training involved isn't as specific as that needed for a marathon.ie regular runners with a halfM pb of say 1.45 could throw out another similar time with perhaps 2-3 weeks notice whereas a sub 3.45 marathon would be unlikely with a similar notice period.
Tim - your halfM pb should mean around 3.10 for the Marathon (note capital M) , my pb is 1.36 and best Marathon is 3.31. If all goes to plan by next year these should be 1.33 and 3.20.
Marathon training is very specific and all sorts of things can happen in the build up and on the day to impede your time.
Bit waffley , sorry !

19/08/2002 at 08:32

You're well on track Dustin. Well done yesterday

Using the same site my 10K PB should give me a 1:36:44 Half so its still not working for me

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