Target time for my first 10km

Hi.

I have started my training for my first half marathon and on advice I received earlier in the week I have entered into a 10km race in 3 weeks time.  I am interested at experienced runners suggestions to what a good target time would be. Please see some details I have put below to give you an idea of where I am:

I am currently running 3 times a week, having started a fortnight ago after months without any training. I ran a comfortable 5km in 23:50, and then a very steady 10km in 53:52. It was the first 10km I had ever ran so I ensured that I ran it

at an easy pace to ensure I finished it and in truth I felt absolutely fine afterwards. Based on this and th fact I still have a couple of weeks full training, what do you suggest would be a good target for a race time. I am planning on building up so that I can really run the race hard so I want to set an optimistic but achievable target! 

Its impossible to be accurate, as no idea  how hard a "comfortable" and "steady" pace is for you.  Therfore the following is my guess:

As a rule of thumb, I'd double a 5k race time and add 10% to estimate a 10k time.  As you ran the 5k "comfortably", you could probably just double it and round it up to 48 minutes.  This kinda aligns with your steady 10k time, as its roughly 5 minutes (or 10%) faster.

If you use 48 mins as your target, in the race you can run the first 5k at this pace (roughly 7:45 min/mile) and then adjust your pace for the remaining 5k.

To test this theory, try running a couple of miles at 7:45 min/mile pace in the middle of one of your training runs.  This should feel a bit uncomfortable but sustainable over the two miles, and you should be able to finish your training run at a comfortable pace after this (i.e you don't have to stop to catch your breath).  Don't worry too much if it feels faster than you think you can maintain over 6 miles, as on race day you'll run faster than you expect due to adrenaline etc.  

One of the most useful pieces of information I was given before racing my first 10K was to keep as closely as possible to even pace. Under the adrenaline of the start line the temptation will be to start too fast and plunge into oxygen debt.

In preparation I did several 4 mile time trials at estimated race pace. I've found that if you can manage a 4 mile time trial in training you can usually push out the same pace for the remaining 2.214 miles on race day.

As Stutyr says, 7:45 miles would be a good place to start. But follow your quarter miles closely in training (circa 1:56 every 1/4 mile).

Can't lay claim to the experience you're after, but despite having come at it from very different ages and a slightly different training route, we're probably not that far apart so I might be able to offer you some insight after my first 10k race this weekend.

I've managed a 22:37 parkrun 5k giving it plenty of beans, so probably comparable to your 'comfortable' 23:50, and a relaxed pace 10k training run in 52:37 so again not a million miles from your 53:52.

I'm 42 now (virtually a fossil, right?  ), at the back end of last summer was overweight and unfit, didn't start running until mid-late November (no prior running background at all), and only started to add a bit of structure and more mileage to my running over the last month or so.

As an initial guide I've got a range that I anticipate falling within at this stage (based on online calculators, 5k pace and training paces), with about 48:20 being the bottom end of what I'd be fairly happy with, and 46:30 being at the very top and something I'd be chuffed to bits with.

In terms of training paces, I've been running some progressive 4-6 mile tempo runs over the last couple of weeks, and holding 7:30 pace or better for a mile or two in the latter stages of them - as well as the shorter parkruns.

I'll drop back by on Sunday evening if you think the comparison might be worthwhile?

P.S. Good luck with this and, having now seen your other thread, the HM when you get to it - wish I had your young legs to train with! 

Big_Bad_Bob wrote (see)

Can't lay claim to the experience you're after, but despite having come at it from very different ages and a slightly different training route, we're probably not that far apart so I might be able to offer you some insight after my first 10k race this weekend.

I've managed a 22:37 parkrun 5k giving it plenty of beans, so probably comparable to your 'comfortable' 23:50, and a relaxed pace 10k training run in 52:37 so again not a million miles from your 53:52.

I'm 42 now (virtually a fossil, right?  ), at the back end of last summer was overweight and unfit, didn't start running until mid-late November (no prior running background at all), and only started to add a bit of structure and more mileage to my running over the last month or so.

As an initial guide I've got a range that I anticipate falling within at this stage (based on online calculators, 5k pace and training paces), with about 48:20 being the bottom end of what I'd be fairly happy with, and 46:30 being at the very top and something I'd be chuffed to bits with.

In terms of training paces, I've been running some progressive 4-6 mile tempo runs over the last couple of weeks, and holding 7:30 pace or better for a mile or two in the latter stages of them - as well as the shorter parkruns.

I'll drop back by on Sunday evening if you think the comparison might be worthwhile?

P.S. Good luck with this and, having now seen your other thread, the HM when you get to it - wish I had your young legs to train with! 

This is great Bob, thanks.

I'd say we are at a very similar stage right now. I'm about to hit the road on a slighter harder 10km, and I'm planning on running a couple of miles in the middle at 7:30ish just like you. I'll let you know how it goes if you're interested!

And haha thanks, I'm determined at the minute to get there with the half marathon, and you're only as old as you feel! And lets be honest, your legs can't be bad if you're running 10km in 53mins. I took my mate on a steady 5km run on Monday. It took 26 minutes and it killed him, and he goes gym 3 times a week and plays football too!

The 5k time plus 10% = 10k sounds about right. For me its around +7 or 8% but give or take its about the right ball park calculation.

Just returned from my 10km, and aimed to stick to a 8min pace for as long as possible.

My km lap splits were as follows:
4:48, 4:59, 4:55, 4:55, 4:58, 4:46, 4:41, 4:47, 4:41, 4:17 

Needless to say I'm over the moon. Total time was 47:46, which is easily the best run I've ever done. Infact, my final 5km was a PB in itself. Looks like I need to revise my target race time a bit. What do people think based on that?

Big_Bad_Bob wrote (see)

Great effort, Tom!

Congrats. I fancied a time-trial myself leading into my race on Sunday, but got talked out of it. I'm happy with the training that I've been advised to do instead, and feel in great shape for the weekend, but this must give you loads of confidence - which was behind my own original thinking.

Shorter run myself this evening, and hit around 7:15 mile pace on just a couple of comfortably hard KM repetitions (45 second jog between them) well into the run as I'm trying to save the legs now. The ease I found that pace has cheered me up a bit anyway after a boozy session on Saturday made Sunday and Monday's runs a bit uncomfortable!

I reckon you've got to be thinking in terms of 46:00 or better now haven't you? Particularly with that really strong final 5k - 23:12 if I've done my sums right?

In terms of what you can do between now and the race, I got a long run over distance (7.6 miles) in about 10 days ago, and think that has helped both confidence and endurance too. You might be able to get a couple of these in before your race depending on exactly when it is? I wouldn't do it within the last week to 10 days though.

The more experienced runners would probably advise you not to do too many hard miles between now and the race, particularly after tonight's effort, but as mentioned before I've enjoyed the progressive tempo medium-long runs with a mile or two at 10k pace at the back end so that might be something else you can consider.

P.S. Think you've probably got the beating of me based on this tonight!

Haha thanks, I felt so good with myself. Yep your maths is right, I've never ran a really hard 5km before so that was the best effort I've ever managed.

With regard to training between now and then, I was thinking that I won't do a run like that again now. I'll probaly alternate between steady runs, and shorter runs at my target race pace, which now stands at around a very scary 7:15 a mile. Frankly, that sounds terrifying, but we'll see how the next fortnight goes. 

I've set the benchmark there anyway with that 47:46, even though it isn't an official time. I'll be expecting a message on Sunday afternoon letting me know that you beat my time!

Look at Tom, I can see him smiling from here, bless.

Good work sunshine, dont be like Julius Caeser though and rest on  your laurels. Get your ass out there and break the 45 minute mark.

Big_Bad_Bob wrote (see)

Seems a realistic target I'd have thought particularly with time for further fitness and pace gains between now and race day.

Just be careful with the quicker stuff - don't go out too hard at that target pace without a decent warm up first.

And yes, I'll pop by on Sunday - though it's just as likely to be a white flag I'm waving as a new time to beat I think!

Haha I want a time to beat so don't let me down. And advice duly noted.

 

Big_Bad_Bob wrote (see)

Seems a realistic target I'd have thought particularly with time for further fitness and pace gains between now and race day.

Just be careful with the quicker stuff - don't go out too hard at that target pace without a decent warm up first.

And yes, I'll pop by on Sunday - though it's just as likely to be a white flag I'm waving as a new time to beat I think!

David Falconer 3 wrote (see)

Look at Tom, I can see him smiling from here, bless.

Good work sunshine, dont be like Julius Caeser though and rest on  your laurels. Get your ass out there and break the 45 minute mark.

 

haha I won't lie, I was pretty happy after that. 

Big_Bad_Bob wrote (see)

Well, I managed to raise the bar for you, Tom as requested!

I think you'll find the pace yourself in race conditions to beat it, I couldn't believe just how much more speed it gave me once the adrenaline started flowing.

45:40 to beat. Absolutely delighted!

Big_Bad_Bob wrote (see)

Well, I managed to raise the bar for you, Tom as requested!

I think you'll find the pace yourself in race conditions to beat it, I couldn't believe just how much more speed it gave me once the adrenaline started flowing.

45:40 to beat. Absolutely delighted!

Thats incredible, well done! That really has raised the bar..

I haven't been out for 3 days now because I've had a niggle in my ankle. But I think I'm going to try it out this afternoon. I just want to make sure it heals properly, because the last thing I want to do it have to pull out.

Providing it heals, looks like I'll be aiming bang on 45minutes then. That's something to aim for. I'll chuck a couple of 4:30 kilometres to my training runs and see how it feels, but your time has given me a lot of confidence, and makes me want to get back on the road ASAP!

Sounds like a decent session, apart from the niggle. Would you describe it as actual pain or just discomfort? A bit more to worry about if it's the former, less if it's the latter.

Did you have a warm up before the above run, or did you start a little more slowly and build the pace up? If you're just launching straight into that pace with cold muscles you will be raising the risk of aggravation I believe. 

I started slowly and worked up. I didnt feel like I aggravated it and the pain wasnt any worse the day after so thats a good thing I guess. It's not painful to the extent that it makes it harder to run, so I'd describe it as a discomfort, but it definitely does hurt a bit. 

I'm out again tomorrow so the aim is to do a final slightly longer run at a steady pace. Knowing me, I'll up the pace in the final 2km but the aim is just to get through the session again.