The RW Race-Time Predictor

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29/09/2005 at 15:55
Has anyone tried modifying the formula as I suggest?
29/09/2005 at 16:43
Actual 10k = 39:07

Predicted 5k = 18:45
Actual 5k = 18:37

Predicted 5mile = 31:03
Actual 5mile = 32:42 (however, months ago)

Predicted 1/2 Mararathon = 01:26:13
Actual 1/2 Marathon = 01:32:05 (however, failed last 3 mile badly)

So, not too far off I think... well, not rediculous, however, I'll try again in around 8 weeks time due to my actual times getting out of date now!
06/12/2005 at 01:42
Actual 1/2 marathon = 01:46:26
Predicted marathon = 03:41:54
ACTUAL MARATHON = 03:50:23

... not too disappointed 'though because these are times for my 2nd half marathon (2 weeks ago) and first marathon (yesterday), having taken up running 7 months ago in mid life crisis mode. Feeling sore today! Aiming for 03:45 at London next.
Calf    pirate
06/12/2005 at 12:11
Pretty good apart from my Mara prediction.

19:30 for 5k ties in with my
1:28 for 1/2 mara

Which means I should be looking at 3:06 for the full monty.....

Shame my 3:44 isn't quite there isn't it!

Do I get a medal for the biggest discrepancy and could do better report????
22/01/2006 at 13:15
my 5k and 10k pb give me predicted marathon time of about 3 hrs but never got near that in 4 attempts at marathon best 3 40
17/02/2006 at 13:59
I'm hoping that the Marathon predictor ir correct, as I've recently done Half In 01:27:44, which predicts 03:02 :-) Not a chance in hell :-)

I think the further the distance, the more in-accurate this prediction formula gets... as the longer the runs, the worse peoples individual bodies re-act... the longer the run is, the more shite I get :-)

Anyone else done a prediction from half to marathon and got correct results? I'd love to know, as I havent' a clue what pace to run the Paris Marathon at!!!
24/02/2006 at 11:54
I get very accurate predictions if I change the 1.06 to 1.11 and I suspect most club runners will be similar. As my times have improved over the years, the 1.11 value has not changed. This suggests that my fitness is improving just as much for the shorter as for the longer runs. I had expected my marathon times to get proportionately better compared to 10ks as I got older. Not so?
26/02/2006 at 13:36
Actual half 1:55:33 Nov 05

Predicted Mara 4:03:42

Actual Mara 3:50:48 Jan 06

Way out....
28/02/2006 at 17:15

Must confess, it scared me when I did this!

Actual 10M: 69.14 (Dec 2005)
Predicted Half: 1.32.10
(Actual Half PB: 1.33.56 Oct 2005))

So fairly close but:

Predicted Mara: 3.12.10
(Actual Mara PB: 3.43.56 June 2005)

Even starting with my best Half time (1.33.56) the predicted marathon time is 3.15.50.

Way, way out at the moment. I'm currently using the sub-3.30 schedule for the Stratford Marathon in May so I'll let you know if this is remotely close:)
28/02/2006 at 21:14
Everyones marathon time will be way out IMO if they haven't done the proper training...
01/03/2006 at 13:25

pugheaven - couldn't agree more. Without the proper training you would find it difficult to achieve your aims.

I think the mental training is very important for marathons. I've been determined and focused for one mara and got within my goal (sub-3.45) and one where my head just wasn't in it and, although it was only 10 mins slower, I had a terrible time for the last 10 miles. The point of this bit is that, although I can picture myself doing 3.30 at Stratford, I cannot possibly imagine getting down to 3.15 or even less!!!

01/04/2006 at 14:42
Well, 2 weeks ago I did a half in 1.42.18 gave me a predicted 10k of 46.24.
I was aiming for a sub 45 but the course had too many sharp corners for me, and a strong gusty wind. I ended in a rather to close to predicted time for my liking of 46.18.
I will just have to push harder next time, and maybe not stop to take a layer off!
I am not hugely happy with a 46 because I know I can do better, but as I have only been running for 7 months I suppose I should accept it as a challenge for next time.
Blisters    pirate
01/04/2006 at 16:04
It seems to show a bit af a faster result than the Macmillan formula. However, its not too bad for races that are "one notch" away from the baseline.

Recent HM: 1:25:03
5k predicted 18:30 (actual 18:33 last year)
10k predicted 38:35 (actual 38:32 last year)
Mara predicted 2:57:19 (dreaming)

Last year's HM 1:26:35
predicted mara 3:00:31 (actual 3:06:03)

To me that is 3 minutes faster than I truly expect.

I suppose the answer is to get off my fata rse and to go running.
02/04/2006 at 13:19
just tried this as part of my flm training. 9m race in 1 hr 23 mins,predicted half marathon in 2 hr 3m 33s. did half marathon in 2hr 3m 15s 2 week later. marathon time prediction is 4hrs 14m.i hope its true, was hoping for sub 4hr 30m but i`ll be happy just to finish
02/04/2006 at 14:19
Mine are all out

I have run a fast 5k as part of my speed training for ultras this year and this pulls all my predicted times away from what they are.

On the plus side I expect to improve on all of these later this year so hopefully that will bring them into line.
07/04/2006 at 13:07
I have to say the predictor is way out, although I hope it is right.
My training has not gone too well for the London Marathon, and both my latest 10k and half marathon times have been personal worsts by some margin. However based on these times it predicts a time of 4 hours 8 minutes.
Trouble is last year I was running half marathons at least 10 minutes quicker, and my best marathon time was 4 hours 3 mins. I did three.
I actually think a time around 4 hours 25 mins is more realistic, although tempted based on the predictor to run the first half a little under 2 hours and see if I can hold it together in the second half.
cougie    pirate
07/04/2006 at 13:30
Well it seems OK for me for my 10k to Half times. It shows a 2.59 for the Marathon - which seems a bit too good to be true though.

I wonder if I've got enough long runs in this year to get anywhere near ?
14/04/2006 at 18:01
Spot on, from 5k to full marathon.

I had been using the formula t2=t1*power((d2/d1), 1.07), not 1.06 and that was fairly accuate
26/04/2006 at 09:09
Hi,

I'm training for my 1st marathon (27/5). My 10K PB of 40:35 seems consistent with a recent half marathon of 1:30. The calculator predicts 3:08 for the marathon. However, I'm a bit afraid that that time is far too agressive. I was actually thinking of breaking 3:30. What do you guys think? How much of an effect does the fact that its my 1st marathon really have?

Thanks
Tom
26/04/2006 at 18:50
Tom,
You HAVE got to have done the training for a marathon, but it should be fairly accurate.

BUT if you are a marathon virgin all kinds of things can go wrong, and some people just haven't the endurance, so I would try to treat the predicted time with some caution. Aim for 3:15 to 3:30. If you are good at 20 miles you can always pick the pace up for the last 6
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