Bonked, over trained or whatever

very nice - i might get around 6-6.15 then if alls equal. My first guestimate was about 7 hours but with the training/improvements i think im about right, with a 5.30 mara and a 1.20 splash and a bit of luck i could make sub 13 which isnt exactly as quick as I wanted but it could be a hell of a lot slower.

Doner Kebab wrote (see)

 meface - i understand what you say about the runners leg trying to be biking legs and before i got a bike i always thought of myself as a runner (of sorts) after analysing my results from various distances i always seem to rank higher on my bike split than my run split in my AG. With this info, coupled with what you said, would you say i had the potential to improve my biking more than my running. I really cant seem to push the bike too hard but yet get pretty good reults. If you like to look at data i can send or post my latest duathlon garmin data

DK,

In general we have the most improvements to be made in the one we have the least experience of. However we are talking %ages of improvement. So 5% improvement of swim is worth a lot less than 5% improvement of bike.

So yes in theory most gains to be made on the bike. However bigger, stronger chaps seem to be better able to put in a good bike leg. I presume because we have naturally stronger legs, and the greater mass is borne by the bike so mass isn't the issue it is on the run.

Given your stated times above 6:15 for bike and 5:30 for mara then I would suggest that the improvements for you are still on the run. A 25% improvement on the bike would have you up with the leaders at around 4:30. However a 25% improvement on the run would still only have you around the 4 hour marathon mark which would be well down in the Pro rankings!

But the run depends on a good efficient bike leg. It isn't all about the bike leg time. I did 6:02 at Regensburg and could have gone faster. My run was 4:50 with a standalone at 4:07 I was 43 minutes slower which is OK - indications are 20-30minutes slower for good runners - which I am not. You need to finish the bike leg ready for the run not ready for the pub.

M.eface

i didnt put all the info about my predicted splits which was my error, i have only done 1 mara and it wasnt a flat road one, it was a trail/hilly mara - Rutland, if you know it, i managed that in just under 4 hours so i asked people about their experiences in standalone and IM mara times and i just came up with 5.30 from what i could from the responses - some people dont degrade alot and only add 20/25 minutes whilst others can add 2 hours so i settled for a more than cautious number so not to set myself up for disappointment. if I apply a 25% degradation it would make it a 5 hour mara. I also asked people who had done the rutland mara and came to the conclusion that their average time increased by around 15 minutes doing rutland compared to a flat road race.

If i was a braver man i would double my vit bike time and add a few minutes. i averaged 19.1mph over 52.82miles which = 2:46:00 bike split so IF i could keep going at that effort i would be looking at 5:32, factor in not giving it that much stick maybe a 6 hour split is possible, still not blisteringly fast but not bad for a first year/ex fat bloke.

I really, really hate unknowns thats why i crunch lots of data and err on the side of caution. At the end of the day I'll be happy to finish but not half as happy as i would be to finish in a relative good time and im sure seeing all the other yellow and black tops on them final mara laps will give us all us first timers a boost to finish.

thanks M.eface for your input - always good to hear from people that are close to where you want to be on that finish line.

OK if helps

Standalone Marathon PB 4:07:55

I did the following for the Cowman Half Ironman

Swim  00:37:58
T1:      00:03:28
Bike    02:48:22
T2:     00:01:51
Run    01:55:30

Total 05:27:13

and for the Regensburg IM  

Swim  01:15:16
T1:      00:08:33
Bike    06:02:23
T2:     00:05:44
Run    04:50:25

Total 12:22:31

 I have used this for predctions and it has been pretty accurate for olympic to half ironman and also ironman apart from the run. But my run at Ironman was run two laps and then a lot more walking in the 2nd two laps

oh thats excellent meface - i used something like this for running but it only went up to 26.2 mile and i now remember seeing this ages ago beforei even contemplated doing iron distance. i now have tonights assignment in hand

HI DK.

I'm a novice compared to the guys above, but you and I did Vit as a first half last year and did it in a similar time, and I also did Outlaw as my first full distance last year, so the splits might be interesting.

Vit splits were;

Swim: 00:39.45
Bike: 2:43.03
Run: 2:03.41
Total: 5:31.59

Outlaw splits were;

Swim: 1:18
Bike: 6:15
Run: 4:55
Total: 12:44

So my avge speed on the bike was about 15% slower at Outlaw than Vit and my run was about 20% slower at Outlaw than Vit. Its fair to say my training was light compared to yours though, and I'd never run longer than 18 miles before Outlaw, so I died on my arse at 20 miles or so, whereas you might not. You must be good for sub 12:30, mate

A good HM time there Slower, after all that work. Do you have a standalone HM time?

The only standalone I've done took me 1:55. That's not very good, is it? I've seen some of the times you and the other guys are knocking in and it makes me feel like a right slug !

Personally I think it's a very decent time STIL and that is said without any patronising tones. 

My HM PB is just under 1.50 and I want to get that to 1:40 by next year.  I'm not sure how close I'll get before I peak (running less than a year and at 50 years old I still haven't peaked......Back of the net! lol).

I read of times in terms of 'respectability' and I'm sure 1.55 fits that bill.  As long as I'm coming in with the people who actually run start to finish then I'll always be happy.

The racing snakes are a different species of human so no comparison can be made

Ah - but it only took you 8 minutes longer having suffered the bike ride!

mmmm.....not sure that the bike ride is suffered so much as delivers an excellent warm up. Last year I set 10k PB at Windsor Oly and a HM 'pace' PB at Swashbuckler! (Swash is 14m run so time adjusted to 13.1 it would have been a PB).

I have managed to beat both since in standalone events. I suppose I should pick easier running courses!

M.eface

**awaits DKs new predictions**

thanks STIL - we were so close - 3 minutes and a bit of change in it. Like you my swim variable is almost nothing once i get over 800m, recently did 200 lengths continuous and at the halfway split there was 45 seconds in it. So it may have taken me a while but in the swim i am consistent. thats the good bit.

novice or not your time is perfectly acceptable - you did a full iron just before you did the vit then? wasnt the outlaw later last year or something. Do you think your quicker vit split was down to your training  from the outlaw or just the shorter distance? When i was enquiring about stand alone mara times someone said that if you trained properly to complete the distance you should nt have trouble completing after the bike keg on the day. I think this is what Meface is implying - I too have ran better off the bike than a stand alone run, my running cadence seems to be higher without the concentrated effort i sometimes have to apply to get up to the 84+ mark.

After the vit 2011 i took a few weeks to get some running in and did my first mara - i never ran over 19 mile but didnt find the run bad at all really. mind you i did put in my best half mara time in the week before that 1.46 and a bit.

Meface - the race predictor is an evil program - i put my vit results in and in return it made my stomach churn - honestly, im never going to get to the target it suggests but for fun it was .....11:55. Dont think its really a goer as it only gives me 10 minutes degradation on the run, as im so close to STIL i think he is very close and maybe with the extra training I'll grab a 12:30 

predictor

I did a 5:15 at the vit the year before I did outlaw
Swim -38
Bike - 2:48
Run-1:43

The outlaw was 10:54.... With a 10 min short swim so let's call it 11:05
Swim 1:12 (1:22 in reality)
Bike - 5:38
Run 3:53

I then followed that up with the vit again 6 weeks later - 4:53
Swim - 39 -ffs !!!
Bike - 2:31
Run - 1:37
So a year of I'm training made a big difference to the bike, some difference to the rin and the swim went backwards

Hope that puts your vit times into perspective, and gives you some context for s target

One thing I got from coach Gordo is 'let the time look after itself....'

Do the swim
Crack through t1
Bike your bike at the plan/ hr targets you have. You will probably be quicker on race day than your long rides. Break it down into 60k or 45 k blocks with effort/hr targets. Try to pave it so the second half is stronger than the first half .
Crack through t2
Run 3 1/2 laps......( or whatever it is this year). Pace those trying to go faster later on if possible.
lap1 is a voyage of discovery -pace it/ hold back
Lap2 is hard- go steady ....
Lap3 is fun- you are heading home. Hammer it

Then see what the clock says, and hopefully you will have surprised yourself

Lap 3 for me was more "relief - i'm heading home". I'd left my hammer somewhere around 18 miles. But that was a cool learning experience.