Can you remember the last ride we went on where Madge did the first bit and you later came alongside me lulling me into a false sense of security about there being no hills? Then we turned the corner and there was one? It's not as steep as that, but just a tad longer! There is another that is just a grind to get up. Otherwise, it's just mildly undulating! The dual carriageway out and back would suit aero though!
I thought quite a bit of the smaller loop, which we go around twice at the Outlaw was a bit exposed. So if it's a bit blowy aero might be the way to go all the same!
And, for what it's worth, I hardly think you count in the 'slouch' states!!