Thames Path 100

Sorry disagree if you run 100mile+ events providing you are trained, prepared physically and mentally then its a high probability you will finish.

The only thing that could well scupper your success is injury or illness (to a certain extent beyond your control.

As Dill said you do have mental weakness during these events but that is where you need the mental strength to overcome.

Hope you recovering well Louismaxy?

I agree that the second big ultra can be harder than the first - both to train for and to finish. It does however get easier with the third, fourth, etc. Being in the right frame of mind at the start is essential - knowing that you've trained as well as you could, knowing that you've excellent support, having a strong motive to finish (e.g. sponsorship, entry requirement for another race etc.), not being injured, well tapered, equipped for all weathers etc.

Building the confidence that you can finish - positive mental attitude.  

I would agree with Bret Runner, provided that the time limit of the event gives you a bit of room for manoeuvre. I am currently 4-0 in 100 mile events because the time limit allows me a little room for error if I get injured, or get lost, or just have a bad day generally.

The event that keeps handing me my head, is the Viking Way Ultra, because there is no room for error. You have a time limit of 40 hours, which means for practical purposes that you have to cover the first 100 in 24 hours and be strong at the end of it. This means that you have to pretty much have a perfect race, or you wont finish.

So the Olympic marathon lands pretty high on the toughest races list. Entry criteria is harder than getting to the start line of any ultra.

I don't claim that my formula is perfect by any means, but it gives you a pretty good ballpark figure.

There are of course anomalies, such as the Medoc Marathon having a high dropout rate, because of the amount of wine consumed.

If a race has strict entry criteria, and still has a high dropout rate, then I know I am in for a tough ride.

Good luck with Connemara then T-Rex

I'll check out the 10peaks too... i'm down in South Wales, so really should know about it... Sounds like a lot of ascent !!