Not sure yet because I don't know what colour pacing t-shirt I'm wearing, or what shoes. Some time after my Expo visit on Wednesday evening I'll be sure to alert social media with an outfit update. Do you think the team could be in with a medal shout?
Also, does the RW forum need its own version of Godwin's Law? It seems that if any discussion goes on long enough, either someone gets accused of being a Nazi, or we talk about my shorts.
So my question is when do you know if you are getting fitter/faster so you can adjust your training paces/target marathon time?
I think training paces should be a work in progress, based on improvements in race times, improvements in paces for a given HR/perceived effort, etc. It's worth keeping sharp with some shorter races before your proper marathon training, for this reason alone. If your 10k pace increases 10 seconds per mile through improved fitness, this is a good reason for adjusting your tempo run pace, for example.
I think it's also worth distinguishing between different types of sessions and what their purpose is, in deciding whether you should be holding yourself back or not. For example, without really hobbling along and shortening your stride, I don't think you can really run too easily for your easy runs and long runs, so don't worry about seeing a low heart rate, that's all good. On the other hand, I think a good interval session should be hard without killing you. Run them according to feel, and if the pace increases for a given perceived effort, all the more encouraging.
Get some races under your belt, keep plugging the numbers into the race time predictor/training pace calculators, and feel smug as the numbers keep getting smaller.