I have short arms but can go beyond toes and touch the floor. I do have really bandy legs though (there's a good 2 inch gap between my knees when standing up 'straight'). Like Matt, probably maintained that ability with it being a standard football stretch.
Pretty much echo what has been said. You can't just say 10k time of x equates to marathon time of y. They are massively different races.
Not my first marathon, but it was my first properly trained for marathon this year. (I did a couple of marathons 3 years ago off of next to no mileage, with a PB of 4:24, so I don't really count those - it wasn't until after that that I got into running!).
So - in Summer 2014, I ran a 10k PB of 39:44 and I haven't ran 10k since June 2014, so that isn't an indicator of current fitness. I ran HM in 86:03 in November 2014, so the target for marathon in May 2015 became around about the 3 hour mark (one eye on sub 3, but hoping for a GFA time of sub 3:05 anyway).
Marathon training went very well aside from a week or so nursing a minor calf strain. 55+ mile weeks for a lot of it and 2 or 3 weeks at 60+. I ran 83:49 for HM in March and it wasn't that hard... so then the marathon target moved to sub 3.
I ran 3:03:39 at Edinburgh which you may have heard was brutal in terms of headwind in the final 8 miles, so on another day it might have been sub 3.
So in terms of the dilemma above, I don't think you can read much into your 10k time. The more important thing is how you train and how you fare at HM, but the HM time is far less significant than your marathon training. My HM and 5k times show a marathon prediction of about 2:56, which I think I would be aiming at by next Spring if I was to train properly for a marathon next year (but I won't be as I'm not going to have the same time as I did this past year!).
Based on the above info, I would be heading out at 3:30 pace to ease yourself in and very gradually ramp the pace up so that you're finishing strong (perhaps even running the last few miles at 3:15-3:20 pace). Nothing will feel better than charging past everyone over those last few miles as they're struggling and you're getting faster...
I haven't been on here for bloody ages, but some ridiculous running going on...
Dean - World medallist?? Awesome! Watched that heat back and you made it look very easy indeed. I loved when the Spanish bloke had a go a couple of times on the final lap and you just held him off with such ease. Great racing.
Matt - you are a bloody machine. Running a sub 2:40 marathon back and forth along a 3 mile stretch and not even properly trying is ridiculous. And then adding in a second run the same day. Wow.
You've got to have the potential to represent England/GB if you get the training right and stay healthy. What's the marathon qualifying standard for Commonwealth Games? 2:16ish? I bet you can do that by 2018.
As for me - training's been a bit up and down over the past couple of months since my Edinburgh Marathon performance. A month of taking it relatively easy but getting back into it with some solid training including 45+ mile weeks with 3x sessions per week but work changed and I've been struggling to fit it all in. Re-jigged the plan a bit so I'll be aiming at 5x per week instead of 6 with 2x sessions - 5k focus to start with then 10k focus then build up to HM in November.
I managed a third place at a local hill race with the club - 8 miles of fairly tasty hills in 55:02 which I was pretty pleased with and a Parkrun PB of 18:05. Going to have a go at Parkrun again next weekend and hopefully get under the 18 mins with some better pacing (I set off at 17:30 pace last time and bonked a bit after 3k).
Congratulations Rich! 9lb 9oz - a fair size like!!!
Getting my legs going again after the marathon - lovely weather for it today. Only been out for a couple of very slow short runs this week, but went round the 10k loop today not looking at my watch at all until I finished. Averaged 7:05 per mile and it was easy despite the heat and hills. Feeling good
... 1 hour 20 mins off my PB! Not to be sniffed at!
I felt great to have pulled a good performance and time in those conditions but there's obviously a bit of frustration that I had to run through 8 miles of brutal headwind because I think I'd have got sub 3 without it. I'll obviously never know so I'm not getting hung up on it and I am delighted with a 3:03 to my name now. One year ago I was delighted with a 93 HM.
Shorter, quicker stuff for the summer now and probably be sticking to that for the foreseeable future as I'm not going to have the same time to marathon train for the next couple of years.