Following my recent post about the heat/time stats. Here are the results.
Firstly, from the results, its clear to say, any increase or decrease in finish time due to heat is impossible to assume, given that I only looked at 3 types of time, and not temperature of different races.
Stats can be manipulated in any way so Im just going to give look at the numbers in their rawest form.
Firstly, there were some runners whose pbs were faster than the time they aimed to achieve in this years flm. Therefore this will have had the opposite effect to those who were aiming for times faster than their pbs. This will bring averages down, but I see no reason to disclude these figures even though it will make it harder to make any assumptions from the results.
So, from the 97 people who submitted their sets of times:
The average number of minutes taken to finish the FLM2007 was 22.6 minutes or 9.6% slower than the average flm2007 goal time.
Of the 97 people, 63 people had run a full marathon before. Of these 63, the average actual FLM2007 time was 10.7 minutes or 4.7% slower than the average pb time. This is expected given the average time taken to complete flm 2007 was slower than the average goal time.
The comparison of average finish time and average pb time becomes more siginificant when the av.goal time and av.pb time are compared. Of the 63 who had completed a full marathon before, the average goal time for flm2007 was 9.6 mins or 3.6% faster than the average pb time.
So, its fair to say that despite goal times being faster than pbs, finish times where slower than both goal times and pbs. (we knew that already).
There could be a number of reasons for this (heat, slow starts, bottlenecks, etc etc). Cant say for sure it’s the heat without doing either a similar analysis on previous races or looking at temperature too.
Hope ive explained it properly. I know what I mean –but I cant always explain it well!I’ll leave you to draw your own conclusions on the averages and if heat played any part.
p.s. If anyone saw me on the course, I was the one with bright yellow tshirt with “Nosh” on front and back of it and with a karate kid headband. If your name is Steve and you tried to help me to the finish, or the young lady whose name I didn’t get, THANK YOU immensely. I finished by the way. Couldn’t have done it without you.