is it bad to be a no show for a marathon (Milton Keynes) when the weather is torrential rain and 45mph gusts of wind? (the Beaufort scale says this wind strength is likely to seriously impede progress on foot')?
4.11 isn't bad for a first marathon! Experience counts, as wells fitness. You gained good experience on Sunday!
I would say you don't choose your goal - your goal chooses you. And that is after your training is done Excellent advice to race some halves to get an idea of your potential. But remember the calculations indicate your marathon potential assuming you have completed all the relevant training.
Cycling is not marathon training. Running lots of miles is the only way.
Martin. If you've done 1.41 in a HM and have completed sensible marathon training 3.45 should be well within your ability. Just set off at an even pace - no faster than 8.24/ mile. As drunken says setting off at the right pace no matter how good you are feeling is what it's all about. If you find yourself ahead of time after a few miles reign it in. I'm sure you can do it!
I find the race pace predictor pretty accurate for me - last year a HM of 1hr46m in Feb and a couple of 20m races at 2 hr 54m got me round London in 3.52. I've never broken 48 in a 10k though. Keep trying ! Race times in 2012 have not been quite up to scratch so I'm not sure how Milton Keynes will go. I'm aiming for 3.45 and hoping that it's less busy than London so will be easier for that reason. ... Keep up the good work !