Hi Ben, Some similarities between us here. I did Brighton on Sunday also and i had a big dilemma as to what pace to go out at prior to the race: - I am 39, running 2 years - First marathon - PB for 1/2 (Brighton in Feb) 1:42:40 - Did a 20 mile race in 2:53 6 weeks ago; ran 10 miles at 9mm, then ran next 10 at 8:15 pace, came hoem feeling great! - I trained about 35 miles per week from January, 3 20+ milers Based on the above I was convinced I had 3:45 in me. However I posted up my data over on the US RW forum and they had some fairly consistent advice that 3:45 was too much, based on my relatively low milage and limited running history. the advice that stuck with me was "start with the 3:45 pace group and let them go". In the end I got stuck a way back behind the 3:45 group, and I decided to wear my HR monitor (which i always train with) for the race and use my HR to judge the right effort level. I ended up raining myself in to around 8:40-8:45 pace for the first half of the race, and i still paid for it in the second where I slowed by about 3 minutes. The undulations of the first half really seemed to take it out of me, and I was tired at mile 17 but kept going and managed to finish in 3:51 just about fighting off cramp the last 2 miles. From about 18 miles I felt I was on the verge of blowing up, and felt utterly destroyed at the end; I am certain that had i gone out following the 3:45 group I would have been walking at around 18 miles; I also think had i ran a more consistent 8:50 pace for the first half I might have got home maybe just under 3:50. I learnt a few things from all this: - Race time predictors are not to be trusted unless you are doing high mileage. My HM time almost led me to making a huge and painful mistake on race day, and I was lucky I asked a question on the US forum. - There is a huge difference between 20 and 26 miles, it really shocked me on the day how much harder it was than the 20 mile race. - I will be more conservative next time about my pace at the start - I need to run more miles I hope my analysis helps yours. I think from my own experience and times you just unknowingly set yourself an impossible pace at the start. | 
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