Pretty much echo what has been said. You can't just say 10k time of x equates to marathon time of y. They are massively different races.
Not my first marathon, but it was my first properly trained for marathon this year. (I did a couple of marathons 3 years ago off of next to no mileage, with a PB of 4:24, so I don't really count those - it wasn't until after that that I got into running!).
So - in Summer 2014, I ran a 10k PB of 39:44 and I haven't ran 10k since June 2014, so that isn't an indicator of current fitness. I ran HM in 86:03 in November 2014, so the target for marathon in May 2015 became around about the 3 hour mark (one eye on sub 3, but hoping for a GFA time of sub 3:05 anyway).
Marathon training went very well aside from a week or so nursing a minor calf strain. 55+ mile weeks for a lot of it and 2 or 3 weeks at 60+. I ran 83:49 for HM in March and it wasn't that hard... so then the marathon target moved to sub 3.
I ran 3:03:39 at Edinburgh which you may have heard was brutal in terms of headwind in the final 8 miles, so on another day it might have been sub 3.
So in terms of the dilemma above, I don't think you can read much into your 10k time. The more important thing is how you train and how you fare at HM, but the HM time is far less significant than your marathon training. My HM and 5k times show a marathon prediction of about 2:56, which I think I would be aiming at by next Spring if I was to train properly for a marathon next year (but I won't be as I'm not going to have the same time as I did this past year!).
Based on the above info, I would be heading out at 3:30 pace to ease yourself in and very gradually ramp the pace up so that you're finishing strong (perhaps even running the last few miles at 3:15-3:20 pace). Nothing will feel better than charging past everyone over those last few miles as they're struggling and you're getting faster...
I haven't been on here for bloody ages, but some ridiculous running going on...
Dean - World medallist?? Awesome! Watched that heat back and you made it look very easy indeed. I loved when the Spanish bloke had a go a couple of times on the final lap and you just held him off with such ease. Great racing.
Matt - you are a bloody machine. Running a sub 2:40 marathon back and forth along a 3 mile stretch and not even properly trying is ridiculous. And then adding in a second run the same day. Wow.
You've got to have the potential to represent England/GB if you get the training right and stay healthy. What's the marathon qualifying standard for Commonwealth Games? 2:16ish? I bet you can do that by 2018.
As for me - training's been a bit up and down over the past couple of months since my Edinburgh Marathon performance. A month of taking it relatively easy but getting back into it with some solid training including 45+ mile weeks with 3x sessions per week but work changed and I've been struggling to fit it all in. Re-jigged the plan a bit so I'll be aiming at 5x per week instead of 6 with 2x sessions - 5k focus to start with then 10k focus then build up to HM in November.
I managed a third place at a local hill race with the club - 8 miles of fairly tasty hills in 55:02 which I was pretty pleased with and a Parkrun PB of 18:05. Going to have a go at Parkrun again next weekend and hopefully get under the 18 mins with some better pacing (I set off at 17:30 pace last time and bonked a bit after 3k).
Congratulations Rich! 9lb 9oz - a fair size like!!!
Getting my legs going again after the marathon - lovely weather for it today. Only been out for a couple of very slow short runs this week, but went round the 10k loop today not looking at my watch at all until I finished. Averaged 7:05 per mile and it was easy despite the heat and hills. Feeling good
... 1 hour 20 mins off my PB! Not to be sniffed at!
I felt great to have pulled a good performance and time in those conditions but there's obviously a bit of frustration that I had to run through 8 miles of brutal headwind because I think I'd have got sub 3 without it. I'll obviously never know so I'm not getting hung up on it and I am delighted with a 3:03 to my name now. One year ago I was delighted with a 93 HM.
Shorter, quicker stuff for the summer now and probably be sticking to that for the foreseeable future as I'm not going to have the same time to marathon train for the next couple of years.
Hello folks - sorry, I'm hopeless at keeping up with this thread, but thought you guys would like to know how I got in my sub 3 attempt at Edinburgh, so here's the race report I sent my coach:
So - prepared pretty well on the morning and was feeling pretty calm to be honest. Strolled down to the start and had a wander about, checked out the elite tent and caught a glimpse of my hero Steve Way. Had a bit of a jog and tried to stay warm as it was fairly cold and drizzly. Bumped into a couple of clubmates that I hadn't even met before and had a good chat before the start. The time actually flew in fairly quickly and then we were off.
Settled into the 6:55 pace pretty easily and notched off the first few miles a touch quicker than target pace but it was all downhill. I was starting to feel a touch uncomfortable and had to have a very quick pit stop just after 5 miles and do a 'Paula'. By this time I'd settled into a wee group of runners I'd recognised and I pushed on a little bit after my pitstop until I caught that group again clocking a 7:00 mile.
Then it was time to push on to 6:48 pace - this was the bit I was nervous about - what if I struggled to find that pace? Admittedly ridiculous as I was constantly having to hold myself back. I then found a new group to run with and one guy in particular with a help for heroes t-shirt that seemed to move through the crowds exactly a yard in front of me for miles and miles.
From about 7 miles to halfway I barely remember a thing other than the back of help for heroes guy!
I went through halfway at 1:29 and thought (naively) that sub 3 was very likely at this point, thinking that the wind wasn't anything like predicted and I might just be getting away with it. At 14 miles I saw something I'll never forget. I got the distinctive whiff of shit and thought it was some weird sea air then I clocked the female runner who had very obviously had an accident. I was just about to fall into step with her (as she was running as if nothing had happened!!) but I pushed on a little bit to leave her behind. Not the nicest thing I've ever done, but you know...
Next few miles I distinctly remember thinking that I was looking forward to turning back as the wind was getting up a bit and felt like I was running into a headwind...!! Think I was at about 16 miles when the elites came flying the other way. Couple of Kenyans, local Edinburgh lad, Steve Way and a guy dressed as batman. No shit - guy dressed as batman must have been close to 2:30 or maybe quicker!
Then we turned back just before 18 miles and the wind just about blew me over. Turned a few corners and kept hoping I'd turn out of the wind but it kept just getting worse! I managed to push through it for about 3 miles and more or less stick on pace but then we started a climb and the pace slowed. I'd left Help for Heroes behind at some stage about 18 miles I think and I just felt like I was passing runner after runner despite my pace slowing with each mile. Everyone else was clearly suffering too. I kept hoping that the wind would somehow die down and I'd manage to push on and keep sub 3 alive but at about 23 miles I think I realised it was gone so just concentrated on getting to the end. The legs were getting heavier and just before 25 Help for Heroes pushed past me and I tried to hang onto him for a while but he was looking strong and I just couldn't muster the push. I think if sub 3 was a remote possibility I'd have found another gear and dug a bit deeper but I knew it was gone and quite a few went past me in that final mile. Managed to push on a little bit in the final wee stretch but didn't even try a fast finish. Got a lift when I got a shout out from someone that recognised the vest and then a wee bit later I saw my wife and daughter but I just cruised in for the GFA time. 3:03:39 in the end which is more than...