@tomhayhoe. I don't know enough about the use of heart rate variability to comment with any real authority on it's use to accuarately measure fatigue. I do like athletes to really understand from a holistic stand how they really feel in order to evaulate fatigue levels. If the iathlete helps them get a better of that through HRV than that must be good thing!
@iancharlton. Tricky weather makes working to pace very difficult! You are best to work to effort level and try and keep that consistent. Of course, running with a massive tail wind means it’ll fee easier but you’ll be running faster. Running into a head wind and you’ll be going slower and it’ll probably feel harder despite you trying to keep it even. Try breaking up the race into bigger sections and going for a with wind / against wind average.
@RobMoyse Heart rate can be a great indicator of pace assuming that you understand your own heart rate! Obviously heart rates very for different people at different paces and all heart rates are relative. I try and encourage runners to get a knowledge and understanding of what their hear rate is at different paces and for them to build a profile of how it feels. You are right though, lots of other factors affect heart rate (illness, nerves etc) and so it’s really only a guide.
@howmanyminutes I use a combination of half marathon race results and long run times. Double your half marathon time in minutes and add 10% for a guide. The best indication comes from a long run. If you can't hold your target marathon pace for the final 6miles of an 18mile run (where you run the first 12 45sec per mile slower than MP), then you’ll struggle to hold that on race day.