How To Predict Your Mile (0r 1500m) Time

It’s useful to have a realistic target for your mile, because much of your speedwork will be paced in relation to it. Here are three ways of finding that target, both for speedwork and racing.

1. By feel
The best option for beginners. If you’re running 400m repetitions on a track, for instance (the ideal venue), simply ask yourself ‘could I complete three more laps at this pace?’ Be realistic, and bear in mind that your speed will naturally improve over the next four weeks.

2. By specific sessions
In a mile race, you should be capable of maintaining the best pace you can hold for 4 x 600m with 5-minute recoveries (see Week Three of the ‘Solid Mile’ schedules,). Alternatively, some runners use 3 x 800m with 3-minute recoveries as a predicting session, which gives a more conservative target.

3. By previous race performances
How closely your 5K or 10K times relate to your one-mile or 1500m time depends on your natural inclination towards speed or endurance, but the figures below should be accurate to within 30 seconds.

 

5K 10K 1500m Mile
15:00 31:30 4:00-4:10 4:20-4:30
17:00 36:00 4:30-4:40 4:50-5:00
19:00 40:30 5:00-5:10 5:20-5:30
21:00 45:00 5:30-5:40 5:50-6:00
23:00 49:30 6:00-6:10 6:20-6:30
25:00 54:00 6:30-6:40 6:50-7:00
27:00 58:30 7:00-7:10 7:20-7:30
29:00 1:03:00 7:30-7:40 7:50-8:00
31:00 1:07:30 8:00-8:10 8:20-8:30
33:00 1:12:00 8:30-8:40 8:50-9:00
35:00 1:16:30 9:00-9:10 9:20-9:30